Intelligence Cycle
opeThe paradigm of intelligence activity is an ideal model of the process of the so-called intelligence cycle
proceeding in stages (and never ending). It consists of several subsequent stages. The first stage is the tasking,
which is usually an external authority's request. It can also be a signal of a problem which the intelligence service
itself has recognized. Tasking is followed by planning, including the assessment of availability and quality of
relevant information which were obtained earlier, the assessment of the information gap (which data has to be obtained
in order to perform the task). It is necessary to search in available open sources and databases of the state administration. It is necessary to choose adequate methods, to plan
individual steps and to delegate people to work on the task. The most important stage is the collection of the
necessary initial information by intelligence methods, means and collection
methods. The nature of the initial processing of gathered information is more technical and organizational - technical
processing, entering into the databases, classification.
Analysis comprises the assessment of information from all available sources, especially the assessment of reliability of a concrete source and reliability of concrete information in terms of the following parameters: relation to the given issue, importance, topicality, completeness, verification (by other sources). In addition, analysis includes recognition of new significant facts, their comparison with information obtained earlier, making conclusion; integration (and synthesis) - integration of the whole analyzed information into a complex pattern; interpretation - decision of "what it means" in terms of "what is likely to happen in the future". The final result is finished intelligence suitable for processing into a report which is distributed to addressees who are entitled to receive it.
Every part of the cycle is closely related to the others and cannot work properly without a feedback from the others, it is a learning process; analytical assessment is included in all stages of the cycle. Nevertheless, intelligence activity rarely fills all the information gaps. The ideal is not only the description of the situation (intelligence assessment) but also the prognosis of the development and its possible scenarios.
Source: Petr Zeman - lectures, trainings and public speeches